Ugly NFL Teams
The public has more influence on NFL lines than any other sport and it has always been important to take a contrarian approach when handicapping the NFL, but I have noticed that the 'due theory' hasn't worked as well the past few years as some teams remain overrated, while others remain underrated and the betting public and oddsmakers fail to adjust. Below is a look at some of the worst teams in the NFL and which ones are on the rise and which ones you should continue to avoid.
The Arizona Cardinals were the most overrated team heading into this season as they were hyped due to the acquisition of Edgerrin James, but Arizona still has a weak offensive line and one of the worst rushing attacks in the league. I faded the Cardinals with the Falcons a few weeks ago and won easily 32-10. I actually recommended the Cardinals two weeks ago on Monday night against the Bears. Chicago had become an overrated team and the line was way too high in what was an extremely motivated spot for Arizona. The Cardinals dominated the game, but lost after blowing a 23-3 lead.
That incredible collapse led to a great play against Arizona last week and I used the Raiders as my strongest football play this season. Oakland looked terrible the first few weeks of the season, but they have since shown to be an above average rushing offense and a decent defensive team. I don't mind backing losing teams if they can run the ball or play defense.
The Buccaneers are another type team that has suddenly turned things around after a slow start. Tampa Bay has a solid defense and has started to run the ball better and commit fewer turnovers with talented rookie QB Bruce Gradkowski at the helm.
The type of team you want to avoid are weak rushing offenses and poor defensive teams. These types of clubs are unable to control the clock and also unable to stop their opponents. The Cardinals fit this mold, but at least have a decent QB as rookie Matt Leinart that has shown promise.
The Cleveland Browns are one of the worst teams to back this season as they are a poor rushing offense and also have a weak quarterback in Charlie Fyre who throws way too many interceptions. Losing the rushing battle and losing the turnover battle is a quick way to the poor house in the NFL and one of reason the Browns are 1-5 SU this year. They do have a decent defense that has held five of their six opponents to 21 points or less and this has enable a slightly better 2-3-1 ATS record.
Tennessee and Houston are both weak defensive teams and despite some recent upset wins (Titans over Redskins and Texans over Jaguars) Tennessee and Houston are teams to avoid. They meet each other this weekend, so there is not a chance to fade either one, but over the next few weeks be careful playing on these two clubs. Overall, I rate the Houston Texans as the worst team in the league, despite the fact there are six other teams currently with a weaker SU record.
Steve Merril is a documented member of the Professional Handicappers League. Read all of his articles at http://www.procappers.com
